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Media all around the world has been quick to pronounce Blu-ray as the winner of the format war. Financial Times went as far as printing rumours about Paramount dropping HD DVD, which Paramount very quickly denied. Other than that, HD DVD PRG has been very quiet about the future. I have a theory about what’s going to happen next.

Mind you, this is not based on any insider information or gossip, but purely my own speculation.

What’s the worst thing that could happen to a Japanese person? Losing face and honour. I think it applies to Japanese companies as well, which is why I’m sure Toshiba won’t drop HD DVD like a bad stink. They are honour-bound to those million consumers who have purchased a HD DVD player. So, what’s going to happen?

1) Toshiba will make a very carefully worded announcement where they concede the war. To save face, they will promise to honour all player warranties and will make sure there are plenty of spare parts available for years to come. They will pledge to do their best so their customers will be able to enjoy their existing HD DVD libraries well into the next decade. They will also dedicate resources into further firmware development and bugfixes for current players, but they won’t be releasing any new HD DVD players. Having said that, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Toshiba announced they will be developing a combo player, perhaps with Samsung or LG.

2) Universal, Paramount and Dreamworks make a press release announcing their continuing support for HD DVD. They will keep releasing new HD DVD titles for the rest of 2008, but that’s the end of the road for HD DVD as far as they are concerned. More importantly, all three will go multi-format as soon as logistically possible, meaning we’ll see their first Blu-ray releases in a few months.

3) Microsoft… well, Microsoft wins no matter how the format war ends. They’ve got their VC-1 in Blu-ray specs, after all, and Xbox Live is churning money selling low-bitrate 720p HD downloads. They spent millions developing HDi, but I’m sure they will be able to re-purpose that for net applications. HD DVD losing the war is not a big deal for MS. They can pretty much shrug their shoulders and go “Meh.” There’s nothing stopping them from coding a Blu-ray player for the Xbox 360.

And while all this is taking place, I have a year’s worth of still shrinkwrapped HD DVDs and Blu-rays in my shelf. As before, I will keep on buying titles in both formats and when HD DVDs are no longer released, all my purchases will be Blu-ray. Nothing could be simpler.